Unknown ageFlood TPI · Today · observed to Nov 14 + NOAA GFS forecast for Nov 15 (partly forecast)

TPI - Flood risk class

Low (0.00 to below 0.20)Moderate (0.20 to below 0.40)High (0.40 to below 0.60)Critical (0.60 or more)Hatched: forecastFlood candidates from radar (NISAR, OPERA DSWx-S1)

TPI 0–1 from NASA GPM IMERG rain, SMAP soil moisture and NASADEM terrain · Nov 15, 2026

Hazards

Analysis

TPI index (Flood)Today · observed to Nov 14 + NOAA GFS forecast for Nov 15 (issued 2026-11-15 00:00 UTC) (partly forecast)

Modeled landslide hazard (XGBoost)

Relative likelihood of a rain-triggered landslide within 24 h (when × where)P(landslide trigger within 24h) — observed IMERG to Nov 14 + NOAA GFS forecast to Nov 15 (issued 2026-11-15 00:00 UTC)

Observations

Flood candidates from radar (NISAR, OPERA DSWx-S1)

Landslide scar candidates (OPERA DIST-ALERT-HLS, vegetation loss)

At most 2 data layers at once, the TPI index included. Turning on another one turns off the oldest.

Always on: municipal boundaries, city labels, permanent water, relief.

TPI - Flood risk class

Low (0.00 to below 0.20)Moderate (0.20 to below 0.40)High (0.40 to below 0.60)Critical (0.60 or more)Hatched: forecastFlood candidates from radar (NISAR, OPERA DSWx-S1)

TPI 0–1 from NASA GPM IMERG rain, SMAP soil moisture and NASADEM terrain · Nov 15, 2026

Start here

Now on the ground

NISAR radar

Post-event radar check

NISAR pair available

Flooded area (NISAR radar, candidates): pending
People in the flooded area (estimate): pending
Landslide scar candidates (OPERA DIST-ALERT-HLS, vegetation loss): 673

3.2 km² · 88 people (estimate)

Newest image Nov 5, 2026 — the product is published 1–2 weeks after the pass.

Caveat: Vegetation loss on steep slopes outside a rain event is mostly forestry harvest / fire; RS 2024 validation (event window) found 55 % of candidates within 500 m of an inventoried landslide.

Also seen by OPERA DSWx-S1 radar (candidates): 127.5 km² · 496 people (estimate) · newest pass Nov 14, 2026

Radar flood candidates from two NISAR passes — not yet checked on the ground.

Vegetation loss on steep slopes seen by HLS optical — candidates, never confirmed.

What NISAR sees and why

NISAR's L-band radar sees through cloud and at night: the flood is mapped even when optical satellites see only cloud.
Open water is smooth and reflects the radar away, so it turns dark. We map water that turned dark between two passes, on low ground near rivers.
Flooded towns and forests can turn bright instead (the radar bounces between water and walls or trunks), so a dark-water map can miss them.
NISAR passes over the same place every 12 days; the map updates with each new pass.

Recent NISAR passes over the area

Nov 14, 06:37 AM BRT · track 132ascending
Nov 13, 06:25 PM BRT · track 125descending
Nov 13, 06:24 PM BRT · track 125descending
Nov 13, 06:24 PM BRT · track 125descending
Nov 13, 06:23 PM BRT · track 125descending
and 132 older passes

Who is affected

Critical area

3.3 km²

flood hazard · as of Nov 15, 02:10 PM BRT

People potentially exposed

as of Nov 15, 02:10 PM BRT

class Low: 636537.2 km²
class Moderate: 195.9 km²
class High: 38.4 km²
class Critical: 3.3 km²

Priority areasas of Nov 15, 02:10 PM BRT

Prediction

Situation overview

Tipping point reached today

Step: Nov 15 · Today · observed to Nov 14 + NOAA GFS forecast for Nov 15 (issued 2026-11-15 00:00 UTC) (partly forecast)

High likelihood of landslide and/or flooding in monitored areas. This is the status of the latest run; no status is published for Nov 15, 2026.

Rain, Soil Moisture and TPI (region average)

Daily series: not published yet

Relative likelihood of a rain-triggered landslide (24 h–14 d) is in the Layers column.

Data sources - dates in BRT

IMERG rain: Nov 14, 09:00 PM BRT
SMAP soil moisture: Nov 12, 07:30 PM BRT
NOAA GFS forecast: Nov 14, 09:00 PM BRT
NISAR radar: Nov 14, 06:37 AM BRT

Forecast (NOAA GFS)